DoorDash stock analysis: Winner in the food delivery market?

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The platform economy of local delivery and on-demand logistics has been undergoing fundamental structural change for years. This change is characterized by technological acceleration, changing consumer expectations, and increasing capital market maturity. While the early years of market development were characterized by aggressive expansion, high investments by venture capitalists, and intense competition, the industry is now increasingly entering a phase of consolidation. In this environment, the US company DoorDash (ISIN: US25809K1051) is becoming increasingly strategic. It has evolved from a restaurant delivery service into a broadly based, globally expanding logistics and commerce enabler. The recent acquisition of Deliveroo underscores the next phase of this industry dynamic: market players are forming larger, more operationally efficient units to meet structural cost pressures, high investments in technology, and increasing expectations for profitability. In theory, there can only be one winner. However, with a market capitalization of around $100 billion, DoorDash is sending a decisive signal.

Source: Stock price

The latest quarterly figures were also extremely positive, and the valuation remains attractive based on the revenue multiple. So could the stock really be a bargain? The following analysis of DoorDash stock reveals the answer.

Company profile – leading delivery service platform in the US

DoorDash operates an online platform and app that connects customers with local restaurants and other businesses, enabling them to order deliveries on demand. With a recent market capitalization of around $100 billion, DoorDash, founded in 2013, has moved from a defensive position to a leading position in the race for the crown of digital delivery services. Skilful acquisitions and strong organic growth have contributed to this. 

DoorDash's revenue sources and technology

DoorDash generates its revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to both restaurants and end customers.

Source: StocksGuide AI

Restaurants pay commissions on every order processed through the platform, typically between 15 and 30 percent of the order value, while customers pay delivery fees and, in some cases, service fees. DoorDash also generates revenue through subscription services such as DashPass, which offers customers reduced delivery costs and exclusive offers for a monthly fee. Technologically, the business model relies heavily on data-driven algorithms to optimize delivery times, route planning, and price dynamics. Artificial intelligence and machine learning also enable accurate demand forecasting, efficient capacity allocation, and personalized offers. In addition, the company invests in vertical integration by providing its own delivery logistics systems and, in selected markets, taking over some warehousing or courier services to improve delivery speed and service quality.

Basic information about DoorDash's business

At its core, the business model is based on a digital platform that efficiently connects various players in the local delivery market. The focus is on end customers, restaurants, retailers, and the drivers who make the deliveries.

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Through its platform, DoorDash creates network effects that are both a blessing and a curse: the more merchants participate, the more attractive the platform becomes to customers—and vice versa. This dynamic increases the reach and frequency of orders, enabling the company to strengthen its market position. The downside, however, lies in the low barriers to entry and the need to go to great lengths to exceed the critical threshold before the competition, at which point a deep moat is created. In short, a lot of capital is burned until, in the end, one dominant player claims the entire market for itself and achieves exorbitantly high margins.

DoorDash's competition

DoorDash's main players and competitors can be considered at both the national and international levels. In the US, DoorDash's core market, the company competes directly with Uber Eats and Grubhub, and to a lesser extent with Postmates, which has since been integrated into Uber Eats. However, Grubhub has also long since ceased to be independent. The company was once a leading player in the US market, but was acquired by the Dutch company Just Eat Takeaway for $7.3 billion in 2020. Grubhub has a particularly strong presence in urban restaurants, but is less aggressive technologically in the area of dynamic delivery algorithms. The price for Grubhub was obviously too high, as evidenced by Just Eat Takeaway's subsequent resale to the Wonder Group for $650 million in 2024. The normalization following the economic boom caused by the coronavirus pandemic, as well as increasing competition from well-capitalized rivals, caused the company to crash. Uber Eats also struggled, but was able to continue to grow thanks to a strong parent company (Uber), which also focuses on ride-hailing services, is well capitalized, and exploits cross-selling effects. Similar to DoorDash, Uber Eats uses a platform structure, connects customers, restaurants, and drivers, and relies heavily on data-driven logistics optimization. However, DoorDash has a strategic advantage through a combination of market penetration in suburbs, exclusive restaurant partnerships, and its own delivery capacities, which it has skillfully exploited over the past few years. It is also becoming stronger on the M&A side: in 2022, for example, it acquired Finnish delivery service Wolt for $8 billion. This was followed in 2025 by the British delivery service Deliveroo for the equivalent of around $3.9 billion and SevenRooms for $1.2 billion.

The first steps toward intensifying international expansion were thus taken inorganically. Not without reason, because competition is already advanced internationally as well. The aforementioned Deliveroo (primarily in Europe and Australia) and Just Eat Takeaway are relevant competitors, with Just Eat recently being acquired by technology investor Prosus for just over €4 billion. These platforms also pursue a multi-sided market model. This involves providing an infrastructure that enables direct interactions and transactions between two or more different user groups. Deliveroo relies heavily on courier logistics and premium service offerings. The German company Delivery Hero is also an international player, but now only operates in emerging markets. Looking at Asia, there is also a fragmented market here. In China, Meituan is by far the largest provider. The company combines food delivery, grocery and product orders, hotel bookings, and lifestyle services in a single app, dominating the market in both urban and suburban regions. Ele.me, which belongs to Alibaba, is also active. However, Meituan has a significantly larger market share. In Southeast Asia, Grab is a leading player. The company, which originally started as a ride-hailing platform, has invested heavily in food delivery and quick commerce and now offers services in several countries, including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. At the same time, Foodpanda (still part of Delivery Hero, but expected to be sold) operates in many countries in the region and is very strong in certain markets, such as Thailand and the Philippines. In India, Zomato is the dominant food delivery service, while Swiggy also holds a strong market position. Both platforms combine food delivery with data-driven marketing and logistics solutions and are fighting hard for urban customers. In Japan and South Korea, there are locally strong providers such as Demae-can in Japan and Baedal Minjok (Woowa Brothers) in South Korea. Some of these have already displaced international players such as Uber Eats. In addition to direct competitors in the food delivery market, DoorDash must increasingly take into account competition from grocery and retail delivery services such as Instacart and Amazon Fresh. They use delivery logistics and platform integration to offer substitute services.

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As we have seen, developments have been dynamic for years, making it difficult to keep track of everything. From a strategic perspective, however, the game is far from over, although a few higher-capitalized players are already emerging that could end up winning the race.

The key difference between DoorDash and its competitors lies in its combination of market penetration, platform depth, and vertical integration. While many competitors operate primarily as pure restaurant delivery platforms, DoorDash pursues a more hybrid model. In addition to restaurants, it also invests heavily in grocery, convenience, and retail deliveries, thereby diversifying its business. Furthermore, DoorDash has achieved particularly broad coverage in suburbs and secondary markets in its core market of the US – a deep moat. This makes it less dependent on highly competitive metropolitan areas and burns less cash, but it also does not have the same profit potential. The platform also uses advanced logistics and routing algorithms, combined with DashPass programs, to increase customer loyalty and order frequency – a strategy that is not established to the same extent among its competitors. Finally, DoorDash also stands out through its ongoing international expansion and strategic acquisitions – such as Deliveroo – which are expanding its global reach and market position beyond purely organic growth paths.

Source: StocksGuide AI

From a strategic perspective, DoorDash operates in an environment where technological differentiation, network effects, and delivery speed determine market share, while price competition and exclusive partnerships have a strong influence on margins and customer loyalty. The management team led by CEO and co-founder Tony Xu is responding strategically with a long-term buy-and-build strategy aimed at building a global platform for local commerce. In terms of capital allocation, DoorDash does not pay dividends, but has expanded the board's buyback powers and granted corresponding authorizations in February 2025. In 2024, shares worth around $224 million were repurchased. At the same time, DoorDash is investing specifically in strategic acquisitions and product developments to further expand its growth, market share, and technological leadership position. Free cash flow of around $2 billion and expected EBITDA of $2.8 billion show that there is still plenty left over after the investments.

The latest DoorDash quarterly figures from September 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, DoorDash showed significantly accelerated business momentum, confirming the strategic course of recent years. Specifically, revenue increased by 27 percent to $3.5 billion. EBITDA rose by 75 percent to $428 million, while EBIT increased by as much as 142 percent. Net income for the quarter ultimately amounted to $244 million – an increase of 51 percent.

Source: Financial data

DoorDash achieved robust growth across all key performance indicators, including revenue, orders, and gross order volume, driven primarily by an increase in active users and deeper customer engagement. The company emphasized that the combination of consistent operational execution and continuous reinvestment in product, logistics, and user experience remains the key driver of this growth.

A key focus of the quarter was on improving the user experience in the US market. These measures alone led to a sharp increase in monthly active users and DashPass members, with DoorDash exceeding its original annual targets after just nine months. The US restaurant business in particular recorded its highest growth rate in over three years, supported by stable unit costs and efficient operational processes. At the same time, new product categories in the US market, such as grocery and retail delivery, developed dynamically. DoorDash expanded its offering, entered into new partnerships, and introduced DashMart Fulfillment Services, an infrastructure designed to enable a more consistent and higher-quality customer experience. Despite continued negative unit costs in the new categories, improvements in efficiency and demand show clear progress.

Internationally, DoorDash also achieved operational improvements in the third quarter, resulting in record unit costs. The company invested in product quality and customer acquisition at the same time, slightly accelerating the growth of active users. Although order frequency grew somewhat more slowly outside the US, international gross order volume remained dynamic, outperforming many competitors in most comparable markets. The completion of the acquisition of Deliveroo in early October 2025 was particularly important strategically in this context. With this step, DoorDash is expanding its geographic presence to over 40 countries, integrating additional talent, and strengthening its market position in Europe and other regions. Through the combination of its platforms alone, the company now serves more than 50 million monthly active users, has over 30 million members in various subscription programs, and works with over one million merchants—a solid foundation for further growth.

DoorDash stock forecast for 2025

Looking ahead to 2026, DoorDash has made it clear that the company will significantly expand its investment activities. Although plans are not yet finalized, DoorDash expects to invest several hundred million dollars more in new initiatives and the further development of its platform in the coming year than in 2025. It has always been emphasized that sustainable growth cannot be achieved without gradual, targeted investments. Instead of short-term effects, DoorDash relies on a development logic that finances projects along clear milestones and uses resources in each phase in such a way that long-term value is created. Many of the previously experimental projects have now reached a level of maturity that justifies intensifying investment, particularly with regard to the strategic vision of further expanding the future of local commerce. For the fourth quarter of 2025, however, the company initially expects continued solid operating momentum, with an increase in gross order volume and strong adjusted EBITDA performance. The integration of Deliveroo is already factored into these forecasts and is seen as an essential part of future growth. DoorDash plans to take a long-term approach to Deliveroo, focusing less on short-term cost synergies and more on targeted investments in product quality, technology, and team structures to achieve sustainable improvements for consumers, merchants, and drivers. Furthermore, it is expected that Deliveroo will already make a noticeable contribution to adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025 and contribute around $200 million in 2026, in line with the expectations underlying the acquisition. More detailed financial forecasts have not been announced.

Source: Sales and Margin forecast

Analysts, on the other hand, estimate that the group's revenue will rise to US$14.1 billion in 2025, representing an increase of around 31 percent. Net profit could rise by 700 percent to US$977 million. This positive development is attributable to strong growth, below-average increases in the cost base, and reduced share-based compensation.

Source: StocksGuide Charts

The long-term outlook is also quite positive. Growth momentum is expected to remain intact. Growth could fall to single digits as early as 2032. By that time, however, sales could already exceed $43 billion.

Key figures for DoorDash stock from the HGI analysis

With a current HGI score of 12, DoorDash performs solidly from the perspective of a growth-oriented, quantitatively-based investor model, but does not achieve an absolute top score. Nevertheless, the stock is included in the top scorer list for growth stocks. The score is based on several key factors that reflect the balance between growth, profitability, efficiency, and risk profile.

Source: HGI Analysis

DoorDash receives high ratings in the HGI analysis in terms of multipliers and capital structure: The stock is characterized by a low PEG ratio, which signals a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth. But the moderate debt ratio of 0.29 also speaks for itself. The latter strengthens financial flexibility and crisis resilience. The ratio of enterprise value to sales (EV/Sales) is also rated positively, as there is still considerable room for improvement in profitability despite high growth.

On the growth and efficiency side, the picture is more mixed. Although DoorDash continues to grow at around 24 percent on a TTM basis and shows stable year-on-year revenue increases, this growth has slowed noticeably compared to previous years. These figures also reflect acquisitions that have fueled growth. The rule of 40 value of 40.2 percent also shows that the ratio of growth to operating free cash flow margin is solid but not outstanding. The same applies to the gross margin, which is stable at around 50 percent and has even improved slightly recently, but only scores average in the HGI model. DoorDash's gross margin, which is rather weak compared to the industry average, results from the structural nature of its business model. DoorDash itself does not operate a pure software platform, but rather a hybrid model in which each order incurs operating costs. These include, in particular, payments to drivers, insurance and support costs, as well as expenses for fraud prevention and operational logistics processes. These variable costs are incurred directly with each transaction and systematically limit the gross margin – unlike software products, which have marginal costs of almost zero. In addition, DoorDash is active in high-growth but inherently lower-margin categories, such as the food and convenience segment. In these areas, DoorDash often takes on a larger part of the fulfillment chain, which increases revenue potential but dilutes gross margin. Strategic investments in faster delivery times, better service quality, and a broader offering also have a negative impact on gross margin in the short term, but increase customer loyalty and order frequency in the long term.

Overall, the HGI analysis classifies DoorDash stock as a stable, high-quality mid-to-high-growth stock that combines both scale and increasing profitability. Above all, the valuation in relation to growth is convincing. More on this in the following chapter.

DoorDash stock valuation

The expected P/E ratio of around 100 is largely useless as a valuation benchmark for DoorDash shares because DoorDash is still in a phase in which its results are heavily distorted by non-operating effects, in particular share-based compensation and high investments. More meaningful are key figures such as EV/FCF and EV/Sales.

Source: key metrics

The former value is 49, which signals a demanding valuation. The EV/sales ratio of around 6.9, on the other hand, could be affordable given expected sales growth of around 31 percent. A look at the historical comparison of growth and valuation shows that valuation has recently risen, even though growth has slowed. Earnings growth, on the other hand, is convincing.

Source: StocksGuide Charts

However, in order for the valuation to remain justified in the long term, DoorDash must fulfill several performance criteria that go beyond pure revenue growth. In the long term, DoorDash must, for example, scale its growth toward a sustainably profitable business model. It is crucial that it manages the transition from a predominantly reinvesting growth company to a model that generates substantial recurring free cash flow. To justify its current valuation, DoorDash must stabilize its gross margin and gradually improve its operating margins. At the same time, it must diversify its platform to such an extent that new business areas such as groceries, retail, and fulfillment services make a growing, profitable contribution. In the long term, how DoorDash drives the monetization of its ecosystem will be crucial for value creation. This includes higher order frequency, greater penetration of DashPass memberships, expansion of high-quality merchant partnerships, and more intensive use of advertising within the platform. The advertising segment in particular has the potential to become a high-margin growth area and thus make a decisive contribution to the fundamental penetration of the valuation.

At the same time, DoorDash must prove that the massive investments in 2025 and 2026 will not only generate growth but also create structural efficiency and technological differentiation. The integration of Deliveroo is an important lever in this regard. DoorDash must also demonstrate that it has mastered international scaling and is capable of establishing the same network effects, algorithm efficiencies, and customer experiences that have led to strong market leadership in the US market, beyond mere cost reduction. DoorDash would also have to actively consolidate the market and make further acquisitions. Further acquisitions should strengthen its own business and weaken the competition. If it fails to do so, DoorDash could go under in competition with more highly capitalized players such as Uber or Amazon, or even become a takeover candidate itself.

However, acquisitions are not without risk, as the history of its competitors shows. But DoorDash faces further structural risks. First, growth in mature core markets such as the US could slow, making the company more dependent on international expansion – an area that is traditionally more complex and has lower margins. Second, the operating cost structure remains vulnerable to regulatory changes, such as those relating to the classification of drivers, minimum wages, or social security contributions. Third, there is a highly competitive environment in which price pressure, promotions, and merchant terms could weigh on margins. Fourth, new business areas such as food and everyday goods delivery may prove to be significantly more difficult to monetize than the restaurant business. However, the current situation shows that DoorDash is not only succeeding in continuing to grow strongly, but is also translating this growth into scalable, sustainably profitable cash flows.

Conclusion on DoorDash stock

DoorDash has become a key player in global on-demand logistics and is benefiting significantly from the scaling trends and consolidation in the industry, which are creating the conditions for sustainable margin improvements. At the same time, the current valuation requires flawless operational execution, continuous innovation, and the successful integration of new verticals. The current promise of growth and profitability must be delivered on in the long term. DoorDash plans to do just that in the coming years. Platform investments and strategic initiatives are to be significantly expanded in order to further increase growth, user retention, and international market share. Key levers will be the consolidation of Deliveroo, the expansion of high-margin verticals such as food and retail, and the continuous optimization of technology, logistics, and customer experience. The goal is to translate growth into sustainable profitability and increasing free cash flows, with success heavily dependent on operational implementation, regulatory conditions, and competitive developments. However, it is by no means certain that this will be achieved.

Source: Target price

Despite the uncertainties, analysts currently view the stock as a buy. Around 75 percent recommend buying the stock, while 25 percent advise holding. The average price target is $285. Compared to the current price of $228, this signals a price potential of around 25 percent. If you still consider the valuation too high, you can set an alert in StocksGuide. It will be triggered when certain self-defined thresholds are reached – the ideal time to take another closer look at the stock. With stable growth, I consider an EV/FCF multiple of less than 30 to be an interesting marker.

The author and/or persons or companies associated with StocksGuide own or may own shares of  DoorDash. This article represents an expression of opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please note the legal information.