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Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns are unsettling investors. Crises are piling up – where is the safe haven? Historically, gold has proven itself over millennia as the only truly safe anchor. The gleaming precious metal is deeply embedded in humanity's consciousness, stores well, does not spoil, cannot be reproduced industrially, and is rare on Earth. The thesis of a financial store of value is therefore justified. Accordingly, positioning oneself as a producer in this market can be correspondingly attractive. Newmont Mining (ISIN: US6516391066) has done exactly this with tremendous success. Today it is the world's largest publicly traded gold producer by both production volume and market capitalization. The core message of the equity story is extremely simple: investors should earn solid returns across gold price cycles – thanks to scale, diversification, and financial discipline. At the same time, a consistent non-hedging strategy enables full participation in rising precious metal prices. To achieve this, the US company operates numerous mines all over the world.
Tailwinds come from megatrends in the precious metals sector. In an environment of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and central banks' need for diversification, gold is regarded as a strategic reserve asset. The gold price keeps climbing to new all-time highs in stages and amid fluctuations. But the company can do more than just gold. To an increasing extent, Newmont mines copper from sites such as Cripple Creek. This allows Newmont to additionally profit from the energy transition and the growing demand for industrial metals. The share price has benefited as well.
Source: Development of the Newmont share over 20 years
Over the past twelve months, however, the gold stock went through a pronounced roller-coaster ride. Driven by a historic gold price rally, the gold producer at times recorded share price gains of more than 240 percent since the beginning of 2025. The stock reached its all-time high of 132 US dollars at the end of January 2026. Since then, however, the stock has been in a noticeable correction. The decline from the peak stands at 27 percent. At the end of June 2026, the stock was trading significantly lower again at around 97 US dollars. Above all, a renewed drop in the gold price to a seven-month low of about 4,074 US dollars per ounce is weighing on the entire gold mining sector. The trigger for this, in turn, was restrictive signals from the US Federal Reserve under its new chairman Kevin Warsh, as well as waning demand for safe havens amid geopolitical de-escalation. The price decline only makes the Newmont stock cheaper.
Source: Newmont Mining Stock Analysis
In two strategy analyses, it is now listed as a top scorer. That is reason enough for us to take a closer look at the Newmont stock.
Company Profile – World-Leading Gold Producer
Newmont was founded in 1916 by William Boyce Thompson in New York and today has its headquarters in Denver, Colorado. The company primarily mines gold, but also copper, silver, lead, and zinc. It is active in countries such as the USA, Canada, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Suriname, the Dominican Republic, Ghana, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. Among the decisive growth steps were the acquisition of Goldcorp in April 2019, the formation of the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture in the same year, and the merger with Newcrest Mining in 2023, through which Newmont gained additional deposits in the Asia-Pacific region.
Source: StocksGuide AI
The company generates its main revenue through the sale of gold at market prices. Because it deliberately forgoes price hedging via forward contracts, it takes on a distinctive risk profile. Newmont participates disproportionately during upward phases of the gold price, but in return also bears the full downside risk when prices fall, as the recent share price correction illustrates.
How is the company managed?
Since January 1, 2026, Natascha Viljoen has been leading the company as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding long-time CEO Tom Palmer, who stepped down at the end of 2025. Viljoen is the first woman at the helm of Newmont in the company's more than one-hundred-year history. Previously, she served as Chief Operating Officer as well as CEO of Anglo American's platinum division. In June 2026, she introduced a completely newly composed leadership team drawn from within the company's own ranks. This team takes over responsibility for areas such as exploration, mine planning, and digital transformation as of July 1, 2026.
At the time, the announcement was rewarded by the market with a marked rise in the share price, which is a clear signal from the market. The reason behind this could be the strategic direction for investors. Specifically, management has defined an expanded capital allocation framework: first priority goes to sustaining capex and the dividend, followed by development capital for growth projects. Only last are funds deployed for share buybacks. These are intended to systematically reduce the number of shares outstanding and thus improve the per-share metrics. Operationally, the focus is currently on cost discipline and productivity gains in order to cushion burdens from energy prices and regulatory interventions such as the Ghana mining levy.
Market Environment and Competitors
The development of the global gold mining sector is significantly influenced by the trend in the gold price, which in turn depends heavily on US monetary policy, the dollar exchange rate, and geopolitical risk premiums. After a historic rally through early 2026, the gold price has corrected noticeably since mid-June 2026. In this environment, however, Newmont ranks among the most liquid and most strongly diversified gold stocks on the US market. So it not only tends to weather crises better, but is also a safe haven for investors within the mining sector.
Among the most important competitors are Barrick Gold (at the same time a joint-venture partner in Nevada and in the Dominican Republic), Agnico Eagle Mines, Wheaton Precious Metals, Franco-Nevada, Gold Fields, and Kinross Gold. While Newmont and Barrick rely on their own mine production, Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada pursue a higher-margin streaming and royalty model without operating their own mines. This means structurally higher margins, but lower absolute production volumes. In the industry, competition is moreover increasingly fought out over cost discipline (AISC – All-In Sustaining Costs), balance sheet quality, and capital returns to shareholders. In the past, many producers had been criticized for overpriced acquisitions. However, these are also necessary in order to realize the required synergies. Scale is a decisive success criterion in a volume market.
Source: Newmont's Peer Group – Development of Market Capitalizations over 20 Years
Nevertheless, the sector is carried by cyclicals. It lifts the industry's stocks like the tide lifts the boats at sea. However, structural differences can also be identified. In boom years, all stocks do rise, but the gaps to the competition widen. This is where economies of scale become apparent. Operationally, it is also striking that upheavals are taking place even within the direct competition. For example, Mark Bristow, the CEO of Barrick Gold, unexpectedly stepped down after nearly seven years. Mark Hill took over the group's leadership on an interim basis while a global search for a successor is underway. Since Barrick, with 61.5 percent, is at the same time the majority owner of the "Nevada Gold Mines" joint venture that is central to Newmont, this leadership uncertainty at the competitor directly affects Newmont's strategic planning security. Beyond that, it is hotly debated whether Newmont might even potentially have an interest in acquiring Barrick's Nevada stakes over the medium term, should the legal dispute fail to be resolved amicably. Either way, more and more acquisitions and mergers will take place. Whether Newmont will still be number one in five or ten years is not a given, but more likely than for smaller competitors. According to Marketscreener, there are 246 publicly traded gold producers worldwide. Newmont is about three times as large as the tenth-largest and ten times as large as the twentieth. The consolidation of the industry is therefore already somewhat advanced.
Opportunities and Risks
Source: StocksGuide AI
With regard to the opportunities and risks, there are various aspects to consider. On the pro side stands the gold price. Should it recover from its correction, Newmont would benefit disproportionately from rising prices due to its non-hedging strategy. The company has an almost debt-free balance sheet and generated a record free cash flow of 9.4 billion US dollars over the past twelve months.
Source: Development of Key Financial Metrics of the Newmont Stock
Both create room for further share buybacks of up to six billion US dollars. Already in the first quarter of 2026, share buybacks and dividend payments totaling 2.7 billion US dollars were carried out. And that's not all: copper production offers additional diversification potential, and the integration of the Newcrest assets acquired in 2023 in the Asia-Pacific region can also unlock additional production capacity over the medium term. Newmont itself expects production growth to pick up again in the second half of 2026, supported among other things by higher output at Cadia, Merian, and Ahafo South, as well as improvements at Yanacocha and Peñasquito. Should the legal dispute with Barrick be decided in Newmont's favor or result in an amicable reorganization of the Nevada Gold Mines complex, this could over the long term even lead to a strengthening of operational control over one of the most significant gold mining regions in the world. Such a scenario, however, remains speculative and should not be treated as a base-case assumption.
The currently greatest risk is the escalating legal dispute with Barrick over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Newmont accuses Barrick of having unlawfully withdrawn equipment and personnel from the joint operation in connection with the neighboring Fourmile project ("resource piracy"). In January 2026, a formal "notice of default" was sent. Since no agreement was reached within the 30-day deadline, the first court hearings began in Nevada in May 2026. According to reports, the dispute is also connected to declining output of around 23 percent at the Carlin and Cortez mine complexes, which underscores the operational significance of the conflict. According to management, the outcome is open and could shape the production structure for years – especially since Barrick is simultaneously planning an IPO of its North American gold division including the Nevada stake, to which Newmont would have to give contractual consent. Operational disruptions such as the earthquake at the Cadia mine in Australia, a lowered production forecast for 2026, and macroeconomic risks from the development of oil prices and interest rates come on top of this. Rising energy costs and a more restrictive interest rate path increase both the mining costs and the opportunity cost of gold, an interest-free precious metal. However, this affects all industry players, with the smaller ones tending to be hit considerably harder. And then there is the central bank. How sensitively the stock reacts to developments in US monetary policy is shown by the following example: the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication in June 2026 alone led to a decline in the gold price to a seven-month low and pulled the Newmont stock noticeably down within just a few trading days. Regulatory interventions, such as the tiered mining levy imposed in Ghana, additionally weigh on the margin. According to company figures, the costs for this amount to around 25 US dollars per ounce in 2026. That is still manageable, but already noteworthy.
The Latest Newmont Mining Quarterly Figures from March 2026
On April 23, 2026, Newmont published its figures for the first quarter of 2026 and ultimately showed that the company started the 2026 fiscal year with an extremely strong first quarter. Newmont was able to impress both operationally and financially. In particular, the persistently high gold prices contributed significantly to a marked improvement in earnings and a record in free cash flow. The company produced 1.3 million ounces of gold, 30,000 tonnes of copper, and 9 million ounces of silver. Gold production was thus slightly lower both compared to the previous quarter (1.45 million ounces) and compared to the year-earlier quarter (1.54 million ounces). This was due, among other things, to weather-related restrictions, scheduled maintenance work, and lower ore grades at individual mines. However, the strong rise in the gold price clearly compensated for the declining volume. The average realized gold price was thus 2,944 US dollars per ounce in Q1 2025, 4,216 US dollars in Q4, and most recently 4,900 US dollars in Q1 2026.
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Source: Financial data of Newmont Mining
In total, revenue in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 46 percent to 7.3 billion US dollars. The decisive factors for this were, alongside the higher proceeds from the by-products silver and copper, above all the higher gold prices. At the same time, the cost base developed positively (direct costs: -8 percent). This is attributable to consistent efficiency and cost-reduction measures as well as lower investments in the maintenance of the mines. Gross profit rose disproportionately by 85 percent to 5.4 billion US dollars. Other financial metrics benefited as well. EBITDA amounted to 5.1 billion US dollars, thus coming in twice as high as in the year-earlier quarter. Net profit reached 3.3 billion US dollars – an increase of 73 percent. The strong financial and liquidity position now enables Newmont to continue its shareholder-friendly capital allocation. The share buyback program was significantly expanded and dividend payments were continued at a higher level.
In the earnings call, management emphasized the focus on operational excellence and productivity gains. Despite disruptive events such as the earthquake at the Cadia mine, it sees itself on track to achieve the annual targets for 2026. In its capital allocation framework, Newmont first prioritizes sustaining capex – that is, the costs that must be incurred to maintain current production. Also in focus is the dividend, then development capital, and finally share buybacks. The production guidance for the full year 2026 was confirmed at 5.3 million ounces of gold. For the second quarter, however, management initially expects a slight decline in production due to the Cadia rehabilitation, as well as significantly higher all-in sustaining costs (AISC), although the annual guidance is to remain unchanged. As cost-sensitive factors, management cited an increase in the Brent oil price of ten US dollars per barrel, which would raise costs by around sixty million US dollars, or twelve US dollars per ounce of AISC, as well as the tiered mining levy in Ghana, which would amount to around 25 US dollars per ounce in 2026. In response to analyst questions about the Nevada dispute, management explained that it is an iterative review and dialogue process with Barrick without a fixed time frame. Various legal remedies are available, and the goal remains an amicable solution. Regarding the Cadia restart timeline, management gave a timeline but remained tight-lipped about the stockpile grades. On the topic of costs and acquisitions, management pointed to productivity and supply chain contracts as key levers. The focus is for now on internal, or brownfield, projects rather than on larger M&A transactions.
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Source: Financial data of Newmont Mining
Overall, the first quarter of 2026 shows a new record in free cash flow as well as a significantly expanded buyback program, which increases the shareholder return in the short term. In the quarter alone, Newmont returned 2.7 billion US dollars to shareholders. In addition, the board approved an additional share buyback program of six billion US dollars.
Source: Development of the Share Count and Key Earnings Metrics of the Newmont Stock over 20 Years
Share buybacks are thus currently the method of choice. Historically, Newmont has by now established itself as a good dividend payer in a capital-intensive and cyclical industry.
Source: Newmont Mining Dividend History 25 Years & Forecast 2028
Over the medium term, dividends are nevertheless expected to stagnate at a high level. At under 60 percent, the payout ratio is solid.
Newmont Mining Stock Forecast 2026
With regard to the forecast, management remains unchanged in its optimism for the remainder of the year. The annual guidance already published in February was confirmed. Accordingly, a gold production of around 5.3 million ounces is still expected. It is also assumed that production output in the second half of the year will be higher than in the first six months of the year. As growth drivers, the company cites in particular the Boddington, Tanami, Lihir, Cerro Negro, and Peñasquito mines, while Ahafo North is expected to gradually ramp up its production over the course of the year. At the same time, the gold producer also expects that investments in maintenance and development will increase in the second half of the year, as several larger infrastructure and expansion projects proceed according to plan. For the second quarter, however, a slightly lower production is initially to be expected, along with temporarily higher unit costs as a result of rising investments, lower silver production, and higher operating costs at individual sites. Nevertheless, management remains confident of achieving the annual targets. A prerequisite for this is, among other things, that commodity prices, exchange rates, and energy costs develop within the range of the underlying assumptions.
Source: Revenue and Margin Forecast 2026, 2027 to 2030
Meanwhile, headwinds could come from the revenue side. Gold prices are declining sharply. Here we are currently in a correction following a strong bull run. Due to the chronically strong expansion of paper money and the scarcity of gold, however, there could be further upside potential over the long term. Analysts forecast continued rising revenues through 2030, with a peak of almost 36 billion US dollars. For the year 2026, revenue of 29.1 billion US dollars (+28.4 percent) is expected.
Key Metrics of the Newmont Mining Stock from the Levermann Analysis
The Levermann strategy, developed by former fund manager Susan Levermann, evaluates stocks based on thirteen quantitative criteria from the areas of profitability, valuation, analyst opinion, price momentum, and earnings development. Each criterion is assigned a score between −1 and +1 depending on its characteristics. The sum of the scores yields a total score, from which a simple buy or sell signal is derived. Within this rule-based strategy, a total score of at least four points is considered a buy signal for large caps with a market capitalization above five billion euros. The current evaluation yields a total score of four out of thirteen possible points for Newmont, which currently makes the stock a top scorer of the Levermann strategy.
Source: Levermann Score of the Newmont Stock
Particularly favorable are a return on equity of 20.9 percent, an EBIT margin of 48.2 percent, and an equity ratio of 59.3 percent. They are all indicators of solid operational profitability and balance sheet quality. But the low forward P/E of around 9, the positive share price reaction of 7.9 percent to the publication of the latest quarterly figures, and the price gain of 62 percent within one year also have a positive effect. Set against this are an elevated P/E averaging 17 in the five-year comparison (the past three years and the expected two years), comparatively overly optimistic analyst opinions (a contraindicator), negative price momentum due to the six-month decline of 4.1 percent, as well as slightly negative earnings revisions for 2026 and 2027. The expected earnings growth of 9.3 percent, by contrast, is convincing.
Source: Historical Development of the Levermann Score of the Newmont Mining Stock
Since the total score of four corresponds exactly to the minimum threshold for large caps, the rule-based Levermann model signals only a narrow buy signal. Historically, too, a tendency toward weakening has been discernible in recent months. Investors should, however, bear in mind that this is a purely quantitative, backward-looking scoring model that does not capture current special factors such as the Nevada legal dispute.
Valuation of the Newmont Mining Stock
In the valuation of the Newmont Mining stock, a mixed picture emerges. The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stood at around 12 at the end of June 2026, while the forward P/E estimated by analysts for 2026, at 9, is significantly below that.
Source: Valuations of the Newmont Stock
Quantitatively, the sharp decline is attributable to the high expected growth in net income. On a trailing twelve months (TTM) basis, the increase amounts to an impressive 66.8 percent. For revenue, an increase of over 28 percent is estimated. Due to the cyclicality, however, the high growth rates in revenue and earnings should be interpreted with caution.
Source: Development of the P/E Ratio and Revenue Growth of the Newmont Stock
In a historical comparison, the stock nonetheless traded significantly higher, with an average P/E of 28 over a period of 20 years. At the same time, the average growth was even lower. Only in terms of book value has the stock moved away somewhat. Historically, it was traded here at less than twice the carried values. Today we are at almost three times.
Source: Newmont Stock Peer Development of P/E Ratios
Although Newmont is currently achieving record profits and an exceptionally high free cash flow, the stock is traded at a moderate valuation, both historically and in comparison to many other large companies in the industry. There are several structural reasons for this. One key factor is the strong dependence on the gold price. Since Newmont's earnings fluctuate with the development of the gold price, investors classify the currently high profits as cyclical rather than permanent. The market thus assumes that the gold price could normalize again over the long term, which would also cause profits and cash flows to fall. That is precisely why the company is not valued on the basis of the current record results, but rather on the basis of an average profit level across the entire commodity cycle. In addition, gold mining is fundamentally capital-intensive. Mining companies must continuously invest large sums in the development of new deposits, the maintenance of existing mines, as well as in environmental and reclamation measures. Even in years with high profits, therefore, only a portion of the generated cash flow remains permanently for shareholders. At the same time, as many mines age, mining costs tend to increase, while new projects require high initial investments. Another uncertainty factor is the operational risks of mining. Production interruptions due to weather events, strikes, technical problems, or declining ore grades are not uncommon. Political risks also play an important role, since Newmont operates mines in countries with differing regulatory and tax frameworks. Changes in license requirements, environmental regulations, or mining levies strongly influence the profitability of individual sites. Beyond that, investors readily value mining companies at a discount, since the existing commodity reserves are finite. To maintain production over the long term, Newmont must continuously develop new deposits or acquire companies. The so-called reserve replacement risk ultimately results in future cash flows carrying a higher risk than, for example, at companies with stable, recurring business models. Finally, Newmont has integrated several large acquisitions in recent years – in particular the takeover of Newcrest Mining – while at the same time selling off numerous peripheral activities. Although these measures are intended to improve the quality of the portfolio over the long term, many investors are for now waiting for sustained proof that the expected synergies can indeed be realized and that operational efficiency can be permanently increased. In sum, the comparatively low valuation therefore reflects less any doubts about the current earning power, but rather the cyclical nature of the gold business, the high investment requirements, as well as the political and operational risks typical of mining companies. At the same time, however, precisely this skepticism could offer potential for a re-rating, should the high gold price level remain sustainably high and Newmont be able to continue its strong cash flow generation as well as the high capital returns to shareholders.
Conclusion on the Newmont Mining Stock
As the world's largest gold producer, Newmont embodies an equity story of operational scale, disciplined capital allocation, and full participation in the development of the gold price through its non-hedging strategy. The 2025 fiscal year and the first quarter of 2026, with record free cash flows, demonstrate that there is quite a lot on offer for investors. At the same time, a newly formed leadership team under CEO Natascha Viljoen has been focusing on operational excellence and cost discipline since the beginning of 2026. However, the escalating legal dispute with Barrick over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, the lower production for 2026, and the recent correction of the gold price to a multi-month low are creating uncertainty.
Source: Newmont Mining Stock Analysis
The rule-based Levermann model, with four out of thirteen points, signals a narrow, purely quantitative buy signal for large caps – without taking into account current special risks such as the Nevada conflict. The HGI strategy, too, delivers a buy signal with 15 out of 18 possible points. It is, however, designed for strong growth companies. Newmont's growth, though, results from a strong rise in the gold price and is likely to be only temporary in nature for now. The stock is historically cyclical, which can also be read from the HGI analysis. Revenue growth, for example, was slightly negative in 2023. Due to the strong scalability, revenue increases feed through directly to profits, which explains the currently good point score in the analysis.
Source: Newmont Mining Price Target 2026 – Rating & Recommendation from Analysts
The analyst consensus tends to rate the stock positively on average, with price targets that lie above the current level. However, there is considerable dispersion between the individual firms, which underscores the uncertainty about further developments. Nevertheless, a price potential of currently over 52 percent can be identified. 83 percent of the analyses recommend a buy, none advise a sell. The stock could thus potentially fit into a portfolio going forward. Investors should, however, carefully keep an eye on the risks mentioned in the Newmont Mining stock analysis – in particular the legal dispute with Barrick, the gold price volatility, and the production trend. I think that a marker of 1.9 on the historical P/B is an interesting approach for taking a value-based angle. In parallel, however, the focus should above all be directed at the gold price.
The author and/or persons or companies associated with StocksGuide own or may own shares of Newmont Mining. This article represents an expression of opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please note the legal information.
